What a difference a year makes.
Last year, the Liberal Party had just elected a new leader in Mark Carney, and was still struggling with the difficult legacy of Justin Trudeau and the rise of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Early gaffes in the election campaign made Carney’s campaign look vulnerable.
That is all history.
The Liberals won a minority government, and Carney was endorsed as the man to take on U.S. President Donald Trump. And now, with by-election wins in Toronto and a stunning 700-vote margin in Terrebonne, they have a majority.
I was in Montreal earlier this month for the Liberal policy convention, and the Palais des Congrès was bustling with activity. There were 4,500 delegates, half of whom had never attended a Liberal event, among 300,000 party members.
This convention was the prime minister’s coming-out party. From the foreign policy sessions inspired by Carney’s January speech in Davos to the Liberals’ “Building Canada Strong” industrial policy, this convention had the Carney imprimatur. A short video from Justin Trudeau at the opening gathered polite applause, making it clear he is yesterday’s man. As analyst Scott Reid said on the Curse of Politics podcast: “Every time Katy Perry tweets, Carney’s favourables go up 3 per cent.”
I ran into former agriculture minister Wayne Easter from P.E.I., who was one of the MPs behind the movement to get rid of Trudeau.
“I doubt we would have official party status right now” if Trudeau were still leader, Easter said, adding: the party is again “the Liberal Party of Canada, not the Justin Trudeau party.”
Strategist and podcaster David Herle agreed, saying the party has reverted to the “big tent” of Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin.
Many delegates mentioned the “big tent,” while expressing concern about recent floor crossings, particularly MP Marilyn Gladu, tagged as a social conservative for positions on COVID and abortion. They echoed the comment of pundit Andrew Coyne on CBC’s At Issue panel, referring to Gladu’s conversion: “The Liberal big tent is fine … but at some point, the big tent becomes a circus.”
Other delegates I spoke to described “parameters” to Liberal values, defined by House leader Steve Mackinnon as “human rights, a woman’s right to choose, equality of men and women.” Some delegates made the trek to Terrebonne during the convention to help out in the by-election there, but most stayed to chat in the corridors. There was no appetite for Carney to go to the polls. Ontario Liberals with long memories recalled former premier David Peterson’s defeat in 1990 when he called an early election.
What I also noticed at the convention was the profile and performance of MPs who were ignored by Trudeau. Defence Minister David McGuinty spent more than a decade on the backbench before joining Carney’s cabinet, as did Public Works and Procurement Minister Joel Lightbound.
Former international public servant Chris Neal told me he hadn’t been to a comparable convention in a long time.
“There was such enthusiasm from a young crowd,” Neal said, which he attributed to Carney.
Carney “has credibility with his peers, in the international financial system,” he added. “Having someone with that gravitas worldwide is an asset nationally.”
Carney’s closing speech was introduced by his wife, Diana Fox Carney.
“My husband and I have been stopped on the streets of (world capitals) by people seeking to thank Canada for our country’s global leadership,” she said.
Carney repeated the fundamentals of his Davos speech, called for Canadian unity and proclaimed: “We are the masters of our destiny, masters in our own house, without exception.”
He closed with an appeal for “a Canada that’s fair … and kind.”
Despite the Liberals’ euphoria coming out of this convention, questions remain. First, can Carney manage a caucus so disparate it includes pro-Israel MP Anthony Housefather and former Ontario NDP MPP Doly Begum, who talked of genocide in Gaza? Or, ex-Conservative Marilyn Gladu and ex-NDP Lori Idlout?
Meanwhile, long-time loyal backbenchers may not appreciate the favours proffered to floor-crossers, like Michael Ma’s trip to China with Carney.
There are great expectations after Carney’s globetrotting to make dozens of trade deals. But they may not compensate for Canadian industries suffering from Trump’s tariffs. And there’s the unpredictability of the reopening of CUSMA, and of Trump himself.
And finally, separatists in Alberta and Quebec claiming Canada is an “illegitimate country” could soon be holding referendums.
Coming out of Montreal, Carney has tremendous momentum, but there are no guarantees it will last.
Andrew Caddell is a veteran journalist and columnist. He writes a regular column for The Hill Times, which covers Parliament and the federal government. He is president of the Task Force on Linguistic Policy, a grassroots group that was formed in the wake of Quebec’s Bill 96, which overhauled the province’s Charter of the French Language.